Tag: Prohibition Profits: The Ground Floor of the Next Trillion Dollar Market

By William Mikula, analyst, Palm Beach Daily

Mexico’s Drug War is a disaster…

Just look no further than events from earlier this month.

On October 18, the Sinaloa drug cartel laid siege to the town of Culiacán after police captured Ovidio Guzmán López—the son of infamous kingpin, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.

Cartel members launched a series of deadly attacks against police to free Ovidio. His eventual release was a stunning defeat for the Mexican government.

But this violence isn’t new… Last year, Mexico recorded 29,111 murders—an all-time high. And it’s expected to surpass that record this year. The government blames drug cartels for most of it.

Clearly, Mexico has a drug problem. But it’s about to implement a solution that’ll reduce violence—while opening the world’s 15th largest economy to a new industry.

And today, I’ll share how you can take advantage of this massive trend, too…

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Flipping the Script on Cartels

For years, Mexican cartels have fought over the drug trade, particularly with cannabis. You see, the country created a lucrative black market when it prohibited cannabis. And violent drug cartels cashed in for billions in illicit profits.

Fortunately, Mexico is changing its strategy. Last year, its Supreme Court ruled the ban on recreational cannabis as unconstitutional. And it ordered lawmakers to regulate its use.

Earlier this month, the Mexican Senate finally received a bill to regulate the industry.

After reading through the major provisions, it’s clear Mexico is taking a calculated approach. It’s adopting the best practices from Canada and various U.S. states.

According to reports, the law would:

• Increase the personal possession limit from 8 grams to 30 grams for marijuana, while also adjusting quantities for other drugs.
• Allow cannabis cultivation in marginalized areas of the country.
• Release thousands of non-violent prisoners convicted of cannabis-related offenses.

Lawmakers still need to vote on the bill. But since it’s court ordered, it’s guaranteed to pass in some form.

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Soon, Mexico will become the third country in the world to legalize commercial production of adult-use cannabis, joining Canada and Uruguay. And it’ll be a massive tailwind for the legal cannabis industry…

After all, Mexico is the world’s 15th largest economy. And it’s the 11th largest country by population, with 130 million people—more than three times Canada’s population.

Mexico also has ideal growing conditions, plenty of prime farmland, and a deep, long history of producing cannabis. And it has a huge market…

According to a 2016 national survey on drug use, more than 7 million Mexicans reported smoking pot at least once in their lifetime. That’s about 8% of the adult population.

So what’s the best way to play legalization in Mexico?

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Next Steps Before the Profits Begin

We’re at the very beginning of a global cannabis boom.

Brightfield Group forecasts cannabidiol (CBD) sales to grow from $591 million this year to $22 billion by 2022. And Merrill Lynch projects the CBD industry to directly disrupt existing businesses worth as much as $2.6 trillion.

Now, Mexico is still in the early stages of legalization. But it’s finally putting the vicious cartels on their heels by changing its approach to drugs. And the opening of the world’s 15th largest economy will give this market a huge boost.

We’ll follow this story as it develops and the final rules are hammered out. As Mexico moves to embrace its new legal cannabis mega-industry, there will be huge opportunities to profit.

In the meantime, a good play could be Canadian producers that have carefully cultivated ties with Mexico from the beginning.

And if you want broader exposure to the legal cannabis trend, consider the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMLSF). It holds a basket of the top cannabis stocks, including some poised to bounce as soon as Mexico goes live.

As always, be sure to do your own research before making any investments.

By Teeka Tiwari, editor, Palm Beach Daily

Last month, The New York Times ran an investigative piece on the Walter Whites of the vaping “crisis.”

If you don’t know who Walter White is, he’s the main character of the hit TV series, Breaking Bad. Walter starts out as a mild-mannered high school chemistry teacher, but devolves into a drug lord of a vicious gang of meth dealers.

And unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve likely heard about the vaping crisis. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 800 people have been hospitalized—and at least 18 have died—from respiratory illnesses related to vaping.

Now, the CDC says vitamin E acetate is likely the primary cause. While the oil is safe for topical use… when inhaled, it can cause shortness of breath, chest pain, coughing, fatigue, fever—and in worst-case scenarios, coma and death.

But according to the Times, investigators believe illicit products are being tainted with other substances, including some that may be dangerous.

In fact, they found 98,000 of these kinds of vaping cartridges during a raid of the home of two Wisconsin brothers. Like the meth dealers in Breaking Bad, they’re major culprits in the black-market vaping operation.

Here’s why this is all important for you…

The vaping crisis has taken a toll on legal cannabis companies. For instance, the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMLSF) is down as much as 31% since August 2019.

But today, I’ll tell you why this short-term pullback is actually a buying opportunity for companies in the space…

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Bad Guys Hurting Good Businesses

Electronic cigarettes are handheld, battery-powered vaporizers that simulate smoking. They were originally designed to help people quit smoking traditional tobacco cigarettes.

But many smokers are turning to vaping devices that use cannabis concentrates like cannabidiol (CBD) and tetrahydrocannabinol (THC).

According to cannabis market research firm Arcview, U.S. cannabis concentrate product sales are estimated to hit $8.4 billion by 2022—a 180% increase from $3 billion in 2018.

As I’ve said before, the legal cannabis industry is set for huge growth. The vaping scare is simply creating negative sentiment among investors—and hammering the entire industry.

But the mainstream press is missing a key point: Illicit black-market suppliers are behind the crisis. They’re taking advantage of vaping’s popularity by creating knockoffs of brand-name products.

These guys are like the people sitting in backwoods cooking up meth in a lab… No one knows what they’re putting into their vape capsules. Yet these knockoffs are hurting legitimate companies, too.

Just imagine someone making bad acetaminophenin their bathroom and selling it as Tylenol. But when people get sick from it, investors punish Johnson & Johnson instead.

That’s exactly what’s going on in the cannabis space right now. Bad actors are making bad products… and legitimate cannabis companies are taking the hit.

The question we must ask ourselves is this: Is this a systemic change in the space or a short-term problem?

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Fixing the Problem

Licensed cannabis producers offer legitimate and safe products. They pay enormous fees to comply with state health laws. And they’re working with regulators to combat these bad actors.

Look, I’m not a huge fan of regulations. But if the vaping crisis has taught us anything, it’s that we need a way to keep the charlatans out.

Cannabis brands are also developing stronger anti-counterfeiting measures. For instance, packaging maker KushCo Holdings is designing unique labels that’ll be extremely difficult to replicate. So customers can spot fakes right off the bat.

Even if you’re not a fan of cannabis or vaping, think about this: The societal costs of vaping and legal cannabis products are much lower than those of alcohol and tobacco.

Alcohol and tobacco are responsible for millions of deaths, illnesses, and injuries each year. Just this year alone, 480,000 Americans will die from complications due to tobacco use.

And the financial costs of caring for smokers and alcoholics globally is likely in the hundreds of billions—if not trillions—of dollars. It’s a huge public health problem.

So far, only 18 deaths related to fraudulent vaping products have been reported. It’s important to keep the current “crisis” in perspective.

I think we’ll soon see regulators crack down on illicit vaping products. That’ll squash the bad actors and ultimately make the entire industry stronger.

Long story short: The industry will resolve this problem. It also means the current weakness represents a buying opportunity.

If it makes sense for you financially, you have the opportunity to buy best-in-breed legal cannabis operators at fire-sale prices. So consider a small stake in this space.

Sure, we’ll see a lot of negative news and click-bait headlines in the short term. But this isn’t a systemic industry-killing problem. And once this issue is resolved, stock prices will recover dramatically.

By Teeka Tiwari, editor, Palm Beach Daily

Since August 5, the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index (HMLSF) is down around 12.2%.

The general cannabis space is still under pressure. Sentiment is poor and there haven’t been any major regulatory breakthroughs.

Yet the bellwether stocks in the industry are posting record growth…

Tilray, GW Pharmaceuticals, and Cronos Group brought in more revenue than ever ($45.9 million, $72 million, and $7.7 million, respectively). And they’re posting record sales figures, too—even though only 11 states have fully legalized cannabis in the U.S.

So what’s going on here?

Well, it’s a disconnect between fundamentals and price.

As we’ve said before, this is par for the course in an emerging asset class; they’re volatile by nature. Sentiment swings wildly… One moment, cannabis stocks are darlings of the dance. The next, they’re ugly ducklings.

Our advice: Ignore the noise. Well-run cannabis operators are bringing in sales hand over fist. Losses are widening because they’re scaling up for even more sales—and ultimately, greater profits.

So today, I’ll share how to take advantage of this disconnect. But first, let me show you why legalization is so unstoppable…

Feds Getting on Board

Although you probably wouldn’t guess it by watching the mainstream financial news… the tide has already turned in favor of cannabis legalization.

One form of cannabis, hemp, is already legal at the federal level. And although marijuana is still federally illegal, it’s medically legal in 33 states and recreationally legal in 11.

On the legalization front, three major bills are working their way through Congress. They’ll make it a lot easier for institutional investors to jump into the cannabis space…

• The SAFE (Secure and Fair Enforcement) Banking Act would prevent the federal government from applying sanctions to banks working with cannabis businesses. It would also allow financial institutions to invest in American pot companies without breaking federal law.
• The STATES (Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting States) Act would ensure every individual state makes its own determination regarding the best legal approach to marijuana within its borders. It also amends the Controlled Substances Act to protect individuals and businesses acting in compliance with state regulations regarding cannabis from federal enforcement.
• The Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act would remove marijuana from the Controlled Substances Act, decriminalizing it and allowing states to write their own policies.

Now, we don’t know if or when these bills will pass… but the writing is on the wall: Cannabis will eventually be legal at the federal level.

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The Floodgates Will Open

Look, federal cannabis legalization is inevitable. And it’ll unlock billions in capital previously prevented from flowing into the cannabis space.

According to New Frontier Data, the global total addressable cannabis market (regulated and illicit) is $344 billion.

And Merrill Lynch estimates that non-intoxicating cannabis alone will disrupt $2.6 trillion worth of industries in the next few years. That’s larger than the alcohol ($232.7 billion), tobacco ($900 billion), and nutraceuticals ($126.3 billion) markets… combined.

But despite the growing wave of legalization, we’re still seeing a market disconnect between fundamentals and price. But again, this is normal for an emerging asset class. We’ve seen similar sentiment swings in the crypto space.

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Fortunately, you can take advantage of the disconnect by placing asymmetric bets on great cannabis companies trading at a discount to their true value.

Look for best-in-breed operators generating tons of sales, with more cash than debt. They’ll be able to scale and generate big profits in the coming years as the cannabis legalization trend plays out.

If you want broader exposure to the cannabis space, consider the Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE). It invests in 20–50 of the top cannabis companies.

It includes pure plays such as Aphria and Aurora Cannabis… as well as indirect plays, like tobacco and alcohol companies tapping into cannabis.

Just remember, like cryptos, legal cannabis is an asymmetric bet. So you only need to risk a little on each idea to make a lot in return.

Expect plenty of volatility—but be thankful for it, too. The same volatility promises to launch this new asset class much higher in the coming years.

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The “green rush” is turning into a green wave across the country.

You see, last December, President Trump signed the Farm Bill. It legalized industrial hemp as a crop. And it’s unleashed a surge of state laws and rules legalizing cannabis…

• Maryland’s Medical Cannabis Commission will offer several types of licenses for growing and processing cannabis. The deadline to apply was Monday.
• Illinois is the 11th state to legalize recreational marijuana. On Tuesday, Governor J.B. Pritzker signed the Cannabis Regulation and Taxation Act. The law will go into effect on January 1, 2020.
• This month, Canada amended its Cannabis Regulations. The new rules allow the sale of cannabis edibles, extracts, topical solutions, and more. They go into effect this October.
• Friday is the deadline to apply for Nebraska’s hemp production license. This year, only research purposes for growing it are allowed. But commercialization is expected as the state develops its regulatory framework.

As you can see, legal cannabis is here to stay. And Palm Beach Daily editor Teeka Tiwari’s been saying it all along.

In fact, he believes those who get into this trend early stand to make life-changing gains. And today, I’ll tell you which types of companies will ride this trend higher…

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A Wave of Spending

According to research firm Statista, the global legal cannabis market will jump from around $17 billion in 2019 to $63.5 billion by 2024—a nearly 274% increase.

Now, the biggest mistake pot-stock investors make is not distinguishing between legal and illegal cannabis at the federal level.

But if you’ve been following Teeka, then you know the cannabis plant has many types.

Most people are only familiar with marijuana (also known as pot or weed). It contains tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC. It’s the psychoactive compound that makes people feel “high.”

And the federal government lists marijuana as a Schedule I drug. So it gets the same treatment as heroin, LSD, and ecstasy. Since it’s illegal, most big banks won’t touch financing for marijuana deals.

Hemp is another cannabis type, though. It produces a chemical called cannabidiol, or CBD. And unlike THC, CBD doesn’t make you feel intoxicated.

So while marijuana is medically legal in 33 states (and recreationally legal in 11), it’s still illegal at the federal level. But hemp is legal across the country.

Here’s Teeka:

Recreational pot will end up much like the modern-day alcohol and tobacco industries: A handful of well-financed survivors will thrive off a stable of big brand names.

But since pot is still illegal at the federal level, it’ll be years before these opportunities come to fruition. So it’s nearly impossible to guess which pot stocks will win big at this stage.

Meanwhile, you run the risk of missing out on profiting from the mother lode: non-THC cannabinoids.

And as you can tell by the recent headlines, the legal cannabis boom is taking off…

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Emerging From the Shadows

The writing is on the wall: This is an unstoppable—and profitable—trend.

New research by Merrill Lynch shows legal cannabis will eventually disrupt markets generating $2.6 trillion per year in revenue—from health and wellness to beverages and industrial products.

If it captures just a fraction of these markets, we believe it’ll become a $260 billion market—practically overnight.

And Teeka says hemp products will take a big chunk of that revenue…

Hemp has about 50,000 industrial uses. You can use it to make clothes, paper, and biodegradable plastics. So we’ll see a lot of hemp and CBD added to thousands of products.

The U.S. Hemp Crop Report shows acreage of hemp cultivation more than tripled from 2017 to 2018. And according to Grand View Research, the global industrial hemp market size will grow at an annual rate of 14% from now until 2025.

Here’s the thing… There’s not enough hemp in the world to meet this demand. Companies throughout the hemp value chain are scrambling to get involved.

So this is becoming a massive opportunity. And the best thing is, you don’t have to wait to play it.

One way for investors to capitalize on this trend is to follow what’s happening on Capitol Hill and in statehouses across the country.

A simple way to stay informed is through the National Cannabis Industry Association. It represents thousands of businesses and professionals in the space. And it tracks cannabis legislation on its website. You can follow it here.

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